Risk and Statistics

2nd ISM-UUlm Joint Workshop

October 8 - October 10, 2019

Risks describe and quantify rare events with high potential of damage and loss as well as dramatic consequences to civil population and the economy of targeted areas. The theory of univariate risks is understood fairly well. However, many risk factors interplay with geodesic variables and should be considered as a whole, i.e., in the multivariate georeferenced context.

The area of multivariate space-time risk analysis is nowadays rapidly developing, forming the cutting-edge research. However, much is still to be done in modelling and statistical assessment of rare dangerous space-time risks.

Possible applications include earthquake prediction, climate modelling, catastrophe modeling and (re)insurance (storms and hurricanes), design of actuarial and financial instruments dealing with the consequences of risky insured events (aging society, loss resulting from earthquakes, etc.), anomaly detection in fibre-reinforced plastic materials.

For instance, various risks are involved in retirement products, particularly longevity risk (ageing society) and financial market risks (crashes, shocks and heavy tails), such that innovative retirement products can be designed to achieve a better risk sharing between policyholders and insurers, and ensure pension security.

Particular attention is paid to (spatial) extreme value theory and long range dependence for heavy tailed time series and random fields (the so-called dangerous risks), copulas and multivariate time series analysis, inverse problems in statistics, development of (geometric) statistical methods providing inference for the models mentioned above, applications of those and case studies.


Participants interested in giving a talk or submitting a poster are kindly asked to register to the workshop. Registration starts on July, 01 and ends on September, 15.

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