Time and place

t.b.a

 

Important News
  • The lectures and exercises are in English.
  • Handing in Homework is compulsory.
  • All further information and all documents can be found in moodle.

Type

2 hours lecture

Prerequisites

Basic knowledge of life insurance mathematics and basic probabilistic models for the calculation of future life spans and mortality tables (e.g. module "Life-, Healtth- and Pension-Mathematics").

 

Intended audience

Master students in Mathematics, Business Mathematics, Finance, Data Science and Mathemtical Biometry

Key subjects

The content of this course may change from year to year.
Some examples of topics are the following:

  • Lee, R. and L. Carter (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Volume 87, 659-671.
  • Brouhns, N.M. Denuit and J. Vermunt (2002). A Poisson log-bilinear approach to the construction of projected mortality lifetables, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Volume 31, 373-393.
  • Girosi, F., and G. King (2007) Understanding the Lee-Carter mortality forecasting method. Recuperado de gking.harvard.edu/files/lc.pdf (2007).
  • Cairns, A. D. Blake, and K. Dowd (2006) A two-factor model for stochastic mortality with parameter uncertainty. Theory and Calibration. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 73, 4, 687-718.
  • Richman, R., and Wüthrich, M. V. (2021). A neural network extension of the Lee–Carter model to multiple populations. Annals of Actuarial Science, 15(2), 346-366.

The focus of the course is especially on the Lee-Carter and the log-Poisson Model.

Final exam

The module examination consists of a graded written or oral examination, depending on the number of participants. The form of the examination will be announced in good time before the examination is held - at least 4 weeks before the examination date.

Literature

Depending on the topics covered, the literature relevant to each semester will be communicated at the beginning of the semester.